The economic pain of the pandemic may be worse in much of eastern Europe than in the west
so far been hit the hardest of any continent by covid-19, but the pandemic has been more tornado than hurricane, ravaging some areas while leaving others nearly unscathed. Eastern Europe has been less affected than the west, and even eastern Germany less than western Germany. Southern Europe has suffered more than the north. Gaps between neighbours can be striking: Spain’s excess mortality per person is more than triple that in Portugal, and France’s quadruple that in Germany.
Yet the economic pain may be worse in much of the east than in the west. “Eastern Europeans dealt with the pandemic efficiently,” notes Richard Grieveson of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies , Eastern European countries are vulnerable for three reasons. First, their economies are export-dependent, leaving them at the mercy of demand in other countries. As a proportion ofexports of goods and services range from 96% in Slovakia and 85% in Hungary down to 67% in Bulgaria and 61% in Latvia. By way of comparison, in Spain the ratio is 35%.
Finally, many countries in the east rely heavily on one of the industries hardest hit by the pandemic: tourism. In Croatia, for example, it generates 25% ofOn the bright side, central Europe could benefit from its dependence on Germany, which is expected to recover quickly. It is by far the biggest trading partner of the Visegrad countries . Morgan Stanley expects Germany to expand by 6.
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