Need to Know: There's a boost coming for stocks, if trade spat doesn't spoil it
There’s a lot of worries to go around, from trade tensions with China to Britain’s possible abrupt exit from the European Union and now, political turmoil in debt-laden Italy. More on that in a bit.
With that forecast in mind, the Macroeconomic Advisers team forecasts a 20% gain in the S&P 500 SPX, +1.88% this year—it’s 17% as of Thursday—and bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.69% to “trend slowly higher” but not breach 3% until the middle of 2021 at the earliest. The buzz There was a lot of international news for markets to digest. Chinese producer prices declined while consumer prices accelerated, putting Chinese authorities in a bind. Italian stocks tumbled after the call for a snap election. The U.K. economy shrank for the first time in seven years, not exactly a great backdrop for the British government to negotiate with the EU, while the Japanese economy was stronger than expected.
Interestingly, while money is flowing out of stocks — $24.9 billion, including $12.4 billion on Monday alone—the flows of $3.6 billion into bonds was the least since Jan. 2016, according to the BAML data.
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