Don’t let Taiwan become a casualty of the Ukraine war, writes austinjdahmer.
that"with certain types of capabilities," there is a direct trade-off. As he put it,"There are some overlaps between the systems for Ukraine and the systems for Taiwan."
Many policymakers and pundits appear to believe that saving Ukraine will help save Taiwan. Not only is this type of bank shot questionable logic on its own, but sending more numbers of critical military systems to Ukraine will likely come at the expense of America’s and Taiwan’s interests. As Napoleon said,"If you want to take Vienna, take Vienna." The Biden administration’s own National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy explicitly prioritize China over Russia, even after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. If denying Chinese hegemony in Asia is truly the foremost priority of U.S. strategy, then Washington ought to support Ukraine only when it is consistent with its more important interests.
But the U.S. military no longer maintains the capacity to fight two conflicts at anything near simultaneity. What the Pentagon calls its"force planning construct" — the yardstick by which it measures the capability and capacity of the U.S. military — has since the Trump administration’s laudedbeen a one-major war construct. Especially given the anemic capacity of the defense industrial base, this applies equally to equipment and munitions stocks such as those being sent to Ukraine.
Systems like Javelin missiles are not only useful for destroying Russian tanks, but also against Chinese landing craft or transport helicopters delivering troops to Taiwan’s shores. Patriot and Stinger anti-air missiles would also be enormously useful to Taiwan’s forces in such a contingency. These are the"certain types of capabilities" for which there is a direct trade-off between Taiwan and Ukraine, as Sullivan noted. These are precisely the types of systems the U.S.
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