Take a look behind the financials of Hipgnosis’ reported $100 million acquisition of Justin Timberlake's publishing catalog.
estimates, with his share of the writing earning about $3.3 million in net publisher’s share . Based on that, the reported $100 million price tag would mean the deal landed a 30.6 multiple NPS — which is considered a very expensive multiple.
Contemporary songwriters, like Timberlake, have tended to trade at lower valuations than catalogs filled with songs that have stood the test of time, such as Bob Dylan, Paul Simon and Bruce Springsteen. That’s because investors feel uncertainty around which songs will prevail with iconic status, and which will be remembered as foregone once-upon-a-time hits.
When the Timberlake catalog was first shopped to the market, sources say his camp was hoping for a $100 million payday, or at the very least a 28 times NPS multiple. At $3.3 million, a 28 times multiple would deliver a $92 million payday. But some potential bidders felt that multiple was too high, considering the uncertainty about the decay rate for the catalog’s current biggest songs; and due to the building nervousness about how rising interest rates could impact valuations.
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