Disney+ and Apple+ are here, but the average consumer isn't going to look at a menu of a dozen options and select only three or four, thus determining winners and losers. There are too many complicating factors for such a simple calculation.
Marvel and Star Wars series and movies, it would a significant player in the "over-the-top" non-cable world. Disney's offering is simply too robust to fail.One way to define success or failure is if Disney hits its own internal subscriber targets. But those numbers are home-cooked, selected by the company to provide achievable benchmarks. Disney estimates it will have 60 million to 90 million subscribers by 2024.
First-mover advantage, brand recognition and massive content spend on original programming will almost certainly keep Netflix as an essential part of an average consumer's streaming package. Eventually, it's possible that millions of subscribers will conclude that a bundle of, say, Disney+ and HBO Max is a good replacement product for Netflix. But while that decision may impact Netflix's marginal growth, it probably won't disrupt the company's global expansion ambitions.Finally, we reach the contestants in the actual Streaming Wars, at least in the near term -- everyone else.
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