Data shows market activity has fallen in bitcoin and ether and that could take prices with it, LVLewitinn explains in this week's Crypto Long and Short:
Several months ago, investors facing FOMO – the fear of missing out – worried that the ship had sailed when it came to crypto. Now, however, while that ship may have left the harbor, the wind is out of its sails as it floats directionless for the time being. Perhaps it’s because of upcoming Fed tightening; enthusiasm seems to have dampened. That sentiment is backed up by some market data showing market activity has fallen and that could take prices with it.
OI for bitcoin options is now at $7 billion and $5 billion for ether. Back in December, those figures were around north of $10 billion and $7 billion, respectively.Some of the falloff can be attributed to year-end bets taken throughout the course of 2021. While current OIs are still significantly larger for both cryptocurrencies than where they were last year, they are still roughly where things were in October, before the big run-up in prices.
Implied vols, which are calculated off options premiums and gauge the market’s view of future risk, are down to levels not seen since October 2020. To be sure, regular levels in crypto implied volatilities would signal alarm and panic in the equity market, but since the second week of December, crypto’s implied vols have drifted down. In the past couple of days, that drop has accelerated.
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