Democrats’ best and likely last chance this Congress to deliver immigration reform now rests on an arcane argument: that giving undocumented immigrants legal residency would affect the federal budget
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Reaching a deal with Republicans on immigration is “at the best elusive and doesn’t seem to me that we can really get there,” said Sen. Bob Menendez , who introduced President Joe Biden’s immigration reform bill earlier this year. “Reconciliation is our best chance: one because it’s must-pass, and two, because obviously we can do it with a majority vote.”
“We’ve always known that that was a temporary program, that was a temporary solution and what we need is a permanent solution,” said Marielena Hincapié, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center. “The Texas decision against DACA ... even more so raises the urgency of why Congress must act right now.”
Democrats’ central argument to the parliamentarian is that offering green cards to certain undocumented immigrants would unlock federal benefits for them, causing effects on the budget that they say are a substantial, direct and intended result. The Congressional Budget Office's preliminary estimate is that the immigration language in the party’s forthcoming social spending bill would increase budget deficits by $139.6 billion over a 10-year period, Democratic aides said.
With respect to the deficit increases their proposal would bring, Senate Democrats often cite a report from the liberal Center for American Progress that found that offering undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship would boost the U.S. GDP by $1.5 trillion, create 400,000 jobs and raise wages over 10 years. In addition, they say that offering green cards would raise recipients' current tax contributions and lead to more processing fees.
Democratic aides have also sought to clarify that their efforts involve providing a pathway to legal status — not to citizenship. But under existing U.S. immigration law, those who end up qualifying to apply for green cards would be able to apply for citizenship after five years if they meet certain requirements.