Republicans are still favorites to keep the Senate, but Democrats' possible path to flipping the chamber is clearer now
The most important states remain Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine, four races where Democratic challengers outraised incumbent GOP senators in the first quarter of this year. These contests underscore just how costly the battle for the Senate will beSuper PACs in both parties have already reserved nearly $130 million for TV ads in these states, plus an emerging battleground in Iowa, to lay the foundation for the fall campaign.
“There seems to be common thinking in both parties that this is a map, and perhaps an environment, that favors Democrats,” Poersch said. “There's been a consistency in the year-and-a-half of Democrats performing well in many of these battleground states, so we're encouraged.” Arizona and Colorado remain Democrats' best targets, thanks to star recruits. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly is the best funded candidate in the country, sitting on $19.7 million, which is nearly double the cash of Republican Sen. Martha McSally. And former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, who has won statewide twice, outraised Sen. Cory Gardner in the first quarter of this year, though Gardner still holds a large cash advantage and Hickenlooper faces a June primary.
Cunningham more than doubled Tillis’ fundraising in the first quarter, but the incumbent still holds a 2-1 cash advantage. Both parties have reserved massive sums on TV: nearly $30 million for Republicans, and more than $25 million for Democrats, amounts that could easily increase in the coming months.
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