Democratic Party activists may be cooling on Elizabeth Warren and warming to Joe Biden. Via FiveThirtyEight:
The December 2019 results are based on interviews with 31 Democratic activists who were asked about the 16 candidates listed above. The number of activists who responded in previous rounds of interviews is varied.As in previous rounds of this survey, I also asked activists whom theyto see as the nominee. Spiritual author Marianne Williamson and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard continue to top this list, with 24 of 31 activists and 22 of 31 activists opposing them.
Another area in which Biden may be building support is in respondents’ answers to my question about which candidate activistsother Democrats who are active in their communities are leaning toward, regardless of the activists’ own preferences. In October, 14 of 29 activists said that their communities were leaning toward Warren. But her numbers have dropped pretty significantly, with only six of 31 saying so now.
Two months ago I noted that Warren’s rise was roughly in line with her rise in the polls and activist support was largely following public opinion. That lesson holds for this round as well, as Warren’sis reflected in this survey, where many activists are less bullish on her.
One person who had previously been committed to former Rep. Beto O’Rourke switched to Sen. Amy Klobuchar after O’Rourke dropped out. There were, however, two people who were pledged to a candidate last time did not respond this time, and conversely, three people who had not responded in the previous round said they were committed to a candidate this time. They are not included in our count of committed activists, as their support might have changed in the interim.
Specifically, I asked respondents, “Which, if any, of the following candidates are you considering supporting for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?” I provided respondents with a randomized list of the 16 presidential candidates who are most commonly mentioned in a variety of news sources and who were still running as of Dec. 2, 2019. This includes Sen. Kamala Harris,
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