Defying gravity? The U.S. stock market’s relentless drive higher has caused some nail-biting on Wall Street that the rally is about to end. Geopolitical risks are just one on a list of worries for 2020 by LKrauskopf
NEW YORK - The U.S. stock market’s relentless drive higher has caused some nail-biting on Wall Street that the rally is about to end. Geopolitical risks – such as the latest escalation of U.S. tensions with Iran - are just one on a list of worries for 2020.
The stock market’s stunning 2019 gains came despite a lackluster year for corporate profit growth, but performance may suffer if earnings lag in 2020. Indeed, data on Friday showed the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December by the most in more than a decade.An initial U.S.-China trade agreement provided a year-end boost for stocks, but any hitch in the Phase 1 deal between the world’s two largest economies could rattle markets.
In October, the Fed announced that it would start buying about $60 billion per month in Treasury bills to ensure “ample reserves” in the banking system, a program that would continue at least until the second quarter. The Fed would also continue to support the short-term lending markets by offering daily operations in the market for repurchase agreements, or repo.
Investors currently see little market risk from the impeachment of Trump. That could change if U.S. senators in Trump’s own Republican party begin defecting against him in significant numbers in the Senate trial.As the market soared in 2019, so did investor bullishness about equities despite rising valuations, a potential sign to be wary.
“Geopolitics has come back to the table and this is something that could have major cross asset implications,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Odier Investment Management in London.Oil prices spiked Friday and a surge in the commodity remains a concern. Aside from the situation in Iran, Barry Bannister, Stifel’s head of institutional equity strategy, said Saudi Arabia may look to boost oil prices as it seeks to list ARAMCO on a larger exchange.
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