Commentary: If the violence in Sudan is shocking, it's because many countries believed the hard military men would willingly give up power.
Sudanese refugees from the Tandelti area who crossed into Chad gather on April 30, 2023, for distribution of aid.
At times, one got the sense that U.S. officials were even more optimistic about Sudan’s future than the Sudanese themselves. The establishment of a 39-month transitional government in 2019, in which the military shared power with a civilian prime minister, was supposed to pave the way for free and fair elections. Washington and foreign capitals applauded the arrangement at the time as a crucial step away from al-Bashir’s dictatorial rule.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20. It’s easy to scold U.S. officials who didn’t get it right. But you don’t have to be an expert on the Horn of Africa to recognize that the road to democracy in Sudan was a steep one — not because the Sudanese themselves didn’t want it but because the powers that be didn’t have an incentive to comply with such a scheme.
The violence is likely to get worse. More than 500 people have been killed in the clashes so far, a conservative estimate. Hemedti’s RSF, up to 100,000 strong, is raiding homes, taking over hospitals, and establishing defensive positions in highly populated urban areas. Burhan’s air force is launching strikes against those same positions to snuff out what he refers to as a treasonous act.
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