“We think the 4th quarter is going to be weak,” Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan tells steveliesman. Here are the structural issues he sees in the economy.
The central bank official attributed the anemic growth level to "deglobalization" in the form of tariffs the U.S. and China have levied against each other in their ongoing trade war.
Over the long run, he sees the U.S. growing at a 1.75%-2% range, though he said even that slowed pace could come under pressure. Those policy changes, he said, have to come on the fiscal side in terms of infrastructure spending and immigration reform.As for the Fed's only monetary policy, he said interest rates are where they should be. The central bank in October approved its third quarter-point reduction this year, taking the overnight borrowing rate to a range targeted between 1.5%-1.75%.
Kaplan is a nonvoting member of the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, but still gets input to decisions and will get a vote in 2020.
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