India’s recent run of economic growth is slow to just 1% this year, the lowest it has been for over 40 years according to research from Capital Economics.
The report claims that India faces “the weakest pace of annual growth since 1979” the year Prime Minister Morarji Desai was replaced by “champion of India's peasants” Charan Singh.Despite boasts of table-topping GDP growth rate in the years since his Hindu-nationalist BJP party took power in 2014, India’s outlook remains fragile. The report warns that the coronavirus, and the important measures in place to save the loss of life, will “ravage the economy over the coming months.
The ongoing 21-day national lockdown, instigated by Prime Minister Modi on March 24, is expected to most affect vulnerable farmers who rely on seasonal crops and will not immediately benefit from the central bank’s measures.The report warns that they expect the lockdown to be extended for up to three months. If so, “Large parts of the manufacturing, construction, transport, retail, leisure and recreation sectors will grind to a halt.
Other researchers agree with Capital Economics on the slump in India’s GDP. Nomura has reportedly lowered its 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5% from 4.5%.Leading British Economist Lord Jim O'Neill, famous for his coining of the terms BRICS during his time at Goldman Sachs, toldthat it is really too soon to tell the full extent of the economic damage the coronavirus has caused to India.
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