Copper’s recent decline looks to be a temporary setback, as the industrial metal readies for a potentially significant supply shortage in the coming years.
Copper remains a “long-term play”—a “direct beneficiary of the move to electrify everything in our lives,” says Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors. The metal is used in everything from electric vehicles to renewable energy. “Very soon, the industry will be operating in a deficit,” he says.
Overall, however, investment hasn’t kept up with consumption. “Supply growth is not accelerating as fast as global demand,” says Holmes, citing data from commodity analysis firm CRU Group, which expects copper supply to come up short by 41,000 metric tons in 2021 and 270,000 metric tons in 2023. Copper has outperformed silver prices so far this year, but other industrial metals, including nickel and zinc, have seen more significant price gains. “Copper prices have underperformed in recent weeks as trade tensions continued to simmer, the dollar rallied to fresh two-year highs,” and some economic data underwhelmed the market, says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.
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