The commercial real estate market could see prices fall 40% this year due to several headwinds, including high interest rates and a possible credit crunch.
"Refinancing risks are front and center" for commercial property owners, a separate Morgan Stanley note said. "The maturity wall here is front-loaded. So are the associated risks."
Even before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March, the commercial real estate market was struggling with a number of challenges, including higher interest rates and waning demand for office space as more companies allow employees to work from home.
Still, others are less pessimistic about the future of the commercial real estate market. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer of Americas, said the headlines regarding office space "are worse than reality.""An expected credit crunch on the back of rising cost of funding for banks may further compound its troubles," Marcelli said in a note.
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