The climate-related drag on global GDP per capita is projected to surpass 2.5% and exceed 3.7% in the U.S. by 2050.
A new report by the IMF, the University of Cambridge and the University of Southern California shows temperature increases will have a negative impact on economic growth.
The researchers — hailing from the International Monetary Fund, the University of Cambridge and the University of Southern California — found little evidence that precipitation had an impact on GDP, but instead observed a large temperature-related effect. "A persistent above-norm increase in average global temperature by 0.04 Celsius per year leads to substantial output losses, reducing real per capita output by 0.8%, 2.51% and 7.22% percent in 2030, 2050 and 2100, respectively," the researchers wrote. "Furthermore, we show that our empirical findings apply equally to poor or rich, and hot or cold countries."
Part of the outsized impact is due to the fact that temperatures in the U.S. are rising faster than the rest of the world, the researchers wrote, with the nation's average annual increase of 0.026 degrees Celsius well above the globe's 0.018-degree annual average. Countries that derive a large proportion of their GDP from agriculture could be most at risk. Excessive heat or rainfall can not only kill crops like corn and soybeans, but delay fieldwork and stall equipment shipments.
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