Keep the shovels handy because a prolonged period of snow is coming this week. This will make our winter in Chicago more miserable.
is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models.
The proverbial butterfly flapping her wings can have a cascading effect leading to wind gusts thousands of miles away. This extreme example illustrates that tiny, unnoticeable differences between reality and what is actually measured can, over time, lead to noticeable differences between what a weather model forecast predicts and reality itself.
The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. The snowfall "plumes" for the model shows various solutions for the amount of snowfall that could on the way. On the low end the model only spits out an inch or two of snow but on the high end the model squeezes out nearly two feet. The average seems to be around 8 to 10 inches for O'Hare.has around 6 to 10 inches of new snow falling in Chicago with almost 17 inches well south of the city in Kankakee.l has similar numbers but a greater range for Cook County in particular.
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