A busy oil sands maintenance season and early summer wildfires put a dent in Canadian crude production in the second quarter, but oil companies are ramping up growth over the next two years and will add nearly 8% to Canada's total output, analysts estimate. The roughly 375,000 barrel per day (bpd) increase in two years would be more than Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, has managed to add over the last five years combined, even after promising European allies it would boost crude output in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. According to Canada Energy Regulator data, Canadian oil production averaged 4.86 million bpd in 2022, up from 4.61 million bpd in 2018.
- A busy oil sands maintenance season and early summer wildfires put a dent in Canadian crude production in the second quarter, but oil companies are ramping up growth over the next two years and will add nearly 8% to Canada's total output, analysts estimate.
Much of the growth will come from oil sands producers like Cenovus Energy and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd tweaking operations to boost efficiency. "Companies can finally say things have recovered enough in the industry that we can maintain returns to shareholders and put some money into production growth," said RBN Energy analyst Martin King.
RBN expects total Canadian crude output to increase 175,000 bpd this year and another 200,000 bpd in 2024, while S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Kevin Birn said annual oil sands production alone will rise around 350,000 bpd by 2025.STEP-OUTS AND TIE-BACKS Cenovus is building a 17-km pipeline connecting its Narrows Lake site to its Christina Lake processing facility that will add up to 30,000 bpd in 2025 , while CNRL is planning to develop the Pike project, purchased from BP in 2022, by stepping out from its Jackfish and Kirby facilities.
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