Recent border clashes between the two Central Asian states show increasing tensions across Central Asia, a region which has long been under Russian influence
While leaders of China, Russia and some Central Asian states met in Uzbekistan’s capital Samarkand for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ten days ago, intense border clashes broke out between two member-states Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,Hundreds of cases of injury to people were also reported from both sides untilon Friday. Regional experts, however, are not too optimistic about the ceasefire transitioning into a lasting peace.
“No one is reining them in,” says Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute , a British think-tank, referring to how outsider Eurasian powers have chosen not to intervene in the Kyrgyz-Tajik conflict. to flee from border areas, which appears to indicate that the Tajiks have been more the aggressive side.
The most recent reason for escalating tensions might be related to reciprocal accusations that one side is blocking the other side to access water sources, Pantucci informs. While it’s difficult to know the real trigger, he believes recent tensions are “the continuation of what has been going on for a year and a bit now”.
Kamal Alam, a military analyst and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, sees a Western political motivation in recent border clashes between the two Central Asian states, which have close ties with Russia. In the last 12 months, more than hundred separate clashes occurred in those border areas, according to Kyrgyz authorities, says Omonkulov. Both countries refuse to make any concessions to the other side, potentially increasing chances of armed conflict, says the academic.
“So many communities are divided across these borders that suited the USSR but not the locals. A bit like the India-Pakistan border or Afghan-Pakistan border. So the main issue is faulty borders, defying history,” says Alam. “Now nationalism and geopolitics combine for super powers and regional powers causing friction.”
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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