EV sales in the Golden State jumped 70% last quarter, a prelude of what’s to come across the country.
, Sources: BloombergNEF; Bloomberg Intelligence; California Energy Commission, Experian, CNCDA, IHS Markit, ACEA; CATARC; OFV; New Zealand Ministry of Transport
The pace of adoption in California picked up significantly once EVs reached 5% of new-car sales, a threshold at which preferences start to flip for mainstream car buyers, according to a Bloomberg Green analysis of EV adoption curves around the world. California was one of the first major car markets to reach that tipping point, in 2018, and so far 23 countries have been added to the list.
For all good technologies, there comes a point at which sticking with the old tech no longer makes sense. Think smartphones in the 21st century or color TVs in the 1960s. Sales move at a crawl in the early-adopter phase, then surprisingly quickly once things go mainstream.Figuring out when EVs will shift into mass-adoption mode is proving an existential challenge for the automotive industry.
The first global automaker to reach mass EV scale, Tesla controls 60% of the US EV market. It spent this year dropping prices and adding new features while maintaining industry-leading margins. Outside of China, car companies have yet to produce a single EV that approaches the sales volumes of Tesla’s Model 3 or Model Y. Until that kind of scale is achieved, the transition will continue to be a costly grind.
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