Economists at MUFG Bank weigh up risks for CAD ahead of BoC’s upcoming policy meeting. CAD stands to benefit initially if the conflict in the Middle E
ast broadens out and Oil rises above $100 The Canadian rate market is currently pricing in only 4 bps of hikes for this week and 7 bps by December, which suggests that the CAD could prove more sensitive to a hawkish BoC policy surprise in the near term.
Beyond this year though we believe that the Canadian rate market is currently under-pricing the risk of BoC rate cuts. The CAD stands to benefit initially if the conflict in the Middle East broadens out and the price of Oil rises above $100/barrel. However, the BoC policy outlook is not as favourable so upside potential should be less than last year.
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