From Breakingviews: The Fed raised interest rates and suggested they could go higher than expected without a hard landing. But if the Fed overshoots, it’s President Biden that carries the can, says johnsfoley
, according to the Atlanta Fed. Unemployment may hit 4.4%, suggesting a 1.3 million increase in joblessness.
For now, the Fed thinks it can manage this without a hard landing. While GDP growth could slump to 0.2% this quarter and 1.2% a year from now – far below the 2% the Fed thinks is the long-run norm – the rate-setters think things will be back on track by the end of 2024. That will hurt companies in the short term, and some areRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comBased on previous interest-rate cycles, the Fed is either being optimistic or trying to break the bad news gently.
Moreover, the risk that an economic slowdown does lasting damage is slight. Banks are reporting that their customers still have more money in the bank than they did before Covid-19 hit, and delinquencies are ticking up, but only slowly. JPMorgan
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