(Bloomberg) -- As Ecuadorians prepare to vote for a president Sunday amid its most violent election cycle in memory, investors are betting an unexpected rally in the country’s battered bonds isn’t finished. Most Read from BloombergVietnam Tycoon Loses $18 Billion After EV Maker’s Shares SinkChina Evergrande Group Files Chapter 15 Bankruptcy in New YorkBiden’s Top Lawyer to Depart White House as Probes Ramp UpBitcoin Calm Shatters With Sudden Tumble, Mass LiquidationsJeremy Grantham Says Fed Is K
The assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio and a shocking rise in crime has made security and stability a focus of the election. That’s raised the chances a conservative, market-friendly candidate will at least make it to a second round in October, and reduces the odds of an outright win by a leftist ally of former President Rafael Correa.
The violence adds to political chaos unleashed earlier this year when lawmakers mounted a campaign to impeach President Guillermo Lasso, who responded by dissolving congress, triggering snap elections. A second-round will be held in October if no candidate gets an absolute majority Sunday — or at least 40% of valid votes with a 10 percentage point lead over the runner-up.
“Based on fundamentals it is cheap,” said Ricardo Penfold, a managing director at Seaport, “but that is trumped by politics and their serial defaulters status.”
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