The U.S. has had surprisingly high fertility rates for a long time.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on May 15 that the number of births in the U.S. is down 2 percent—“the lowest number of births in 32 years.”
By 1990, there were 2.1 children per woman in the U.S., compared to 1.4 in Spain and 1.5 in Germany, for example. It’s normal for fertility rates in wealthy countries to go up and down. People tend to adjust the timing of births to take advantage of a “good” year—such as one when high state benefits are offered—or avoid a “bad” year—such as one with high economic uncertainty.
And, between the 1990s and early 2000s, Sweden’s fertility fell and then rose, in part due to changes in the timing of births, the economy and the state’s generous supports for parents. However, if economic conditions improve for these young people, research suggests they are likely to “make up” many of these births later in their lives. Whether these younger cohorts do or not will be more consequential than the current yearly birth rate.
There are at least two scenarios that would create challenges. The first is a persistently low fertility rate that leads, over time, to a shrinking population. A population with a sustained fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman, for example, will quickly contract.
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