President JoeBiden may luck out on recession before November but still has to worry about 2024
But with the Commerce Department poised to publish its third-quarter gross domestic product data days before November's midterm elections, the White House and the party may run out of time to spin any bad news.With less than three months before the midterm cycle, Democrats are grappling with the prospect of voters remaining sour on the economy, even if there is no recession and unemployment stays low, according to Brookings Institution Governance Studies Vice President Darrell West.
The Republican National Committee reminded reporters in a memo Monday that year-on-year inflation is not 0%, despite July's promising month-on-month 0.3% figure, and gas prices continue to average $1.50 more per gallon than before Biden was president. "This job creation is no accident — it’s the result of the president’s economic plan, including the American Rescue Plan and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law," she said.
But Lachman, a former Salomon Smith Barney managing director and International Monetary Fund policy development deputy director, is still bracing for a recession late this year or early next year. He based his forecast on the housing market and the likelihood the equity market will"tank" if the Federal Reserve Bank keeps raising interest rates by 75 basis points, as well as consumer sentiment more broadly.
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