The path to Senate control appears uncertain and volatile, as polls show Democrats and Republicans running neck and neck in several battleground states that hold the key to the majority.
As the race for Senate control enters its final, candidate-by-candidate stage of the campaign, political prognosticators find themselves at a loss trying to predict what’s going to happen. Inflation and historical trends benefiting the party out of power favor Republicans, but the Supreme Court decision overturningearlier this year and the primary victories of some inexperienced Republican Senate candidates have kept Democrats surprisingly competitive.
Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia also have been barraged with ads tying them to crime and inflation, while Democratic groups and candidates have focused on abortion and raised questions about Republican candidates’ character.Brent Buchanan, president of Cygnal, a Republican polling firm, noted that abortion has fallen down some voters’ priority list,
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer was caught on a hot mic reassuring Biden about the party’s chances of holding on to the Senate majority. “Looks like the debate didn’t hurt us too much in Pennsylvania ... so that’s good,” he said, while also noting there was some momentum in Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is in danger of losing her seat. He also said Democrats were going “downhill” in Georgia, and said it was hard to believe the state would vote for Walker.
“If it ends up being a wave night, do not be surprised to see surprise results like in Arizona, which means we are not talking about if Republicans have won back Senate control, but how large their majority could be beyond 51-49,” wrote the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, as it shifted the race to toss-up status, citing several private polls.
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