Banks’ earnings are expected to have held up well despite low interest rates. Still, the Fed’s policy change means difficult times ahead for most banks.
Earnings season for banks begins Oct. 15, when J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to announce their third-quarter results, with Bank of America following up the next day.
The financial sector is expected to rank a close second for earnings growth. Considering the boost to earnings per share from stock repurchases, that is unimpressive. The Fed’s threat The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to make two cuts to the federal funds rate during the third quarter was meant to help reduce the chance of the U.S. economy from slipping into recession, but it is a gloomy development for most banks. It means shorter-term loans that are indexed to short-term rates will reprice at lower rates, reducing lenders’ net interest income. Most banks aren’t positioned to make up for the lost revenue with lower funding costs.
On Oct. 8, bank analysts at Jefferies, led by Ken Usdin, lowered 2019 earnings estimates for 23 of 38 banks, while lowering stock-price targets for 24. Looking ahead, he noted “estimated net income growth flips to negative in ’20 before returning to a modest positive in ’21.”
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