Automakers pledge to go all-in on EVs, but the numbers aren't adding up.
While EVs like the Kia EV6 took a well-earned victory lap in 2022, ICE cars sputtered to the finish of a snail-paced sales year. But all the electric champagne-spraying didn’t clarify the existential question facing every legacy automaker: To be all EV, or not to be?
Some analysts with seasoned perspectives are actually downgrading forecasts of EV adoption. Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley cut his forecast of U.S. EV penetration from 32 percent to 26 percent by 2030, and from 13 percent to 11 percent in 2025. Jonas still expects global penetration to reach a healthy 11.8 percent next year, with electric popularity in China and Europe continuing to outpace the U.S.
A word about all that: Not so long ago, a horror show like 2022, strangled by supply chains to the tune of roughly 13.8 million new-car sales, might have bankrupted one or another Detroit automaker. Instead, with the average new car transacting for a record $49,507 in December, according to KBB, many automakers are marinating in record profits. The domestic industry alone, including suppliers, may easily top $40 billion in full-year earnings.
The first of BMW’s “Neue Klasse” EVs arrive in 2025, with Tesla-style large-format batteries and a half-dozen global battery factories to supply them. I watched BMW transforming its century-old Munich plant into an “iFactory” that can build cars with every powertrain — ICE, PHEV, EV, hydrogen fuel cell — on a single production line. Munich plans to crank out 100,000 BMW i4s here this year, half the plant’s 200,000-car annual capacity.
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