Australia’s central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged at Governor Philip Lowe’s final meeting amid mounting signs that its tightening campaign is slowing inflation without doing too much damage to the economy.
The Reserve Bank will hold its cash rate at 4.1% for a third straight meeting on Tuesday, all-but-one economist predicted, as 11-year high borrowing costs slow demand. Lowe has characterized policy as being in “calibration phase,” whereby the board may make small adjustments in response to economic data.
Lowe has moved more cautiously than developed world peers, having raised rates by 4 percentage points, compared with 5.25 points in New Zealand and the US. The RBA paused at its past two meetings even though price gains remains elevated and are only forecast to fall back within the 2%-3% target in late 2025.
Money markets imply a good chance the central bank will be on hold for the rest of the year, with a rate cut only fully priced in by late 2024. Economists reckon the RBA will hike one more time to take the cash rate to 4.35%, with a shallow easing cycle predicted to begin in May next year.
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