As states reopen amid the coronavirus outbreak, Americans are subjectively measuring the stakes of restarting their lives.
We are becoming a nation of amateur actuaries, calculating the risk of restarting our lives.
We know the odds of pre-coronavirus daily living. The lifetime chances of getting struck by lightning in the U.S. are about 1 in 180,000. Of dying in a car crash, about 1 in 106. Dying of heart disease? About 1 in 6. Dying in a storm? 1 in 54,699.have the whiff of precision but are taken for granted because they have been modeled for so long with a reliable process to gather statistics. The coronavirus has no specific predicate other than similar diseases.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has frequently said that if the strict lockdown measures he has imposed in his state saved a single life, he would consider them worth it. His calculus may be the more aspirational but not the most realistic. Others pushing to swing open the doors to the economy and continue the chase toward prosperity argue that the economic damage from staying home could be worse than the direct effects of the disease, a frame often used by President Trump.
There are several ways to hedge that risk. Engineers test the strength of a bridge so that you will risk crossing it. Investors make the bet that a stock will go up, with the risk that it could also go down.
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