Across Berks County, about 26,000 properties have an 80% or higher chance of flooding in the next 30 years, according to an ABC analysis.
Flood water tore through Berks County this July, destroying dozens of homes in the span of a few hours. Heavy rains overflowed a creek and washed away a hill, creating mudslides and a clear path for water to rush into nearby homes.
Beck, along with many of her neighbors, did not have flood insurance because she didn't live in a federally designated flood zone. FEMA's flood zones don't include these risky properties because they are based on past flood events, rather than future predictions that account for climate change, experts say, and because they don't factor in certain types of flooding that are becoming increasingly common. That means the gap between flood risk and insurance coverage will only grow as climate change brings heavier and more frequent rains.
Water broke through the window to Cox's basement, flooding it and ruining her brand-new furnace and air conditioning unit. It took down part of her fence, hollowed out her porch and turned her driveway into a sinkhole. Cox said she's received estimates of about $40,000 to repair the damage, which has put a financial burden on her family.
Flood zones, officially called Special Flood Hazard Areas, are places that FEMA estimates have a 1% chance of flooding each year. But these calculations are based on historical flood data, which are losing relevance as climate change creates unprecedented conditions. Carolyn Kousky is Associate Vice President for Economics and Policy at the Environmental Defense Fund, where she studies climate risk management and disaster insurance. She said the FEMA maps don't capture a cause of flooding that is becoming increasingly common due to climate change: heavy rainfall that overwhelms stormwater infrastructure, like what happened in Muhlenberg.
Back when Cox and Schwambach purchased their homes, both properties actually were in FEMA flood zones. But about 10 years ago the maps changed, and the new flood zones did not include their homes. Benjamin Collier is an Associate Professor of Risk Management and Insurance at Temple University's Fox School of Business. He said many people don't understand that there is a lot of flood risk -- and increasing risk -- outside of FEMA flood zones.
"We don't like to buy things we hope to never use," Kousky said. "We don't like to think about bad things happening when the sun is shining, and everything is fine." "The past few years it's been a lot more rain, and a lot more rain in a little bit of time," Cox said, noting that her yard has flooded multiple times recently. "Over the years, it has gotten a lot worse."
"They might have fewer investments in risk reduction ahead of time, their homes might not be built to as high standards or safe, there might be less community level investments in risk reduction," she explained. "Those who are least able to afford disaster insurance, including flood insurance, are often the ones who need it the most," Kousky said, "because they don't have other sources of funding or financing to cover the huge range of cost that disasters can impose on households."
Beck, Cox and Schwambach waited months for FEMA disaster aid after Governor Josh Shapiro requested federal individual and public assistance for Berks County and hazard mitigation for all of Pennsylvania. "We'll continue to work alongside our local and federal partners to help Berks County recover from the flooding, and to support Pennsylvanians across the state who were impacted by disasters this year," the PEMA statement read.
"A lot of our programs were designed and operating in a time when we thought the climate was more stable, and now we're in a world of increasing risk," Kousky said.
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