Investors think the biggest American bank failure since the financial crisis will make policymakers think twice
Investors scrambled to pull down global rate expectations on Monday and abandoned wagers on steep U.S. hikes next week, reckoning the biggest American bank failure since the financial crisis will make policymakers think twice.
U.S. interest rate futures surged and a hard-running rally in short-term bonds extended, putting two-year Treasuries on course for their best three-day gain since Black Monday in 1987. A late-Sunday note from Goldman Sachs, in which the banks’ analysts said the banking stress meant they no longer forecast the Fed to hike rates next week gave the rates rally an extra leg in the Asia session.At 4.4098% they are also below the bottom end of the Fed funds rate window at 4.5% - a sign markets see rates’ peak is near.
There were also rallies in Australian interest-rate futures and Europe futures, which rarely move much in Asia, with traders reckoning global policymakers turn cautious. “If anything, support for deposit holders supports the idea that the Fed could keep tightening policy,” he said, if the measures were able to ring-fence problems to a few banks.
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