It is time to fill out those NCAA Tournament brackets with the arrival of March Madness. Duke statistics Professor Ezra Miller says an informed fan has perhaps a 1 in 2 billion chance at picking a perfect ballot. Experts say artificial intelligence has been used by bracketologists for years and is always evolving.
FILE - Lisa Moeller takes a photo of the NCAA bracket for the NCAA college basketball tournament on the side of the JW Marriott in downtown Indianapolis, March 17, 2021. College hoops fans might want to think again before pinning their hopes of a perfect March Madness bracket on artificial intelligence. While the advancement of artificial intelligence into everyday life has made “AI” one of the buzziest phrases of the past year, its application in bracketology circles is not so new.
Casual fans may spend a few days this week strategically deciding whether to maybe lean on the team with the best mojo — like Sister Jean’s 2018— or to perhaps ride the hottest-shooting player — like Steph Curry and his breakout 2008 performance that led Davidson to the Sweet Sixteen. For the 10th straight year, the data science community Kaggle is hosting “Machine Learning Madness.” Traditional bracket competitions are all-or-nothing; participants write one team’s name into each open slot. But “Machine Learning Madness” requires users to submit a percentage reflecting their confidence that a team will advance.
In 2021, his most successful year, Ford said the model correctly named 66 of the teams in the men’s bracket. He uses a “fake committee” of eight different machine learning models that makes slightly different considerations based on the same inputs: the strength of schedule for a team and the number of quality wins against tougher opponents, to name a few.
“Did the players get enough sleep last night? Is that going to affect the player’s performance?” he said. “Personal things going on — we can never adjust to it using data alone.”
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