Month after month, the nation's job market has stood its ground against howling headwinds - rising interest rates, chronic inflation, major bank failures and economic uncertainties across the world.
Hiring has gradually slowed, along with pay growth and job openings. Yet by historical standards, the labor market has remained surprisingly strong, with an unemployment rate still hovering near half-century lows.
“We’ve raised rates by 5 percentage points in 14 months” - from a range of 0%-0.25% to a range of 5%-5.25%, Powell said at a news conference Wednesday. “And unemployment is 3 1/2 percent - pretty much where it was, even lower than where it was, when we started.’’ The Fed chair said he was optimistic that the nation could avoid a recession. Yet many economists are skeptical and have said they expect a downturn to begin sometime this year.
Even consumers, who drive about 70% of economic activity and who have been spending healthily since the pandemic recession ended three years ago, are showing signs of exhaustion: Retail sales fell in February and March after having begun the year with a bang.
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