September is the worst month for stocks, historically, averaging a 1% drop.
Measures of investor attitudes suggest a level of caution last seen either just after the late-2018 20% market tumble or back to the previous economic scares of 2015-16 and 2011.
The 6% pullback from the late-July record high to the August lows in the S&P 500 was partially recovered, but in choppy, treacherous fashion. The index gained or lost at least 1% on 11 days — half of all August monthly trading sessions. Further, Jim Paulson of Leuthold Group calculates that Septembers have been rougher when preceded by below-average six-month equity returns and declining bond yields .
Of course, profits could likewise disappoint in the coming year, especially into early 2020, when projections have earnings growth accelerating toward 10%. It's worth asking whether August's profoundly negative atmospherics — the deepening anxiety over trade-war escalation and purported omens of recession — have left Wall Street pretty well-braced for what September might hold.Measures of investor attitudes — surveys, market-based indicators and fund flows — suggest a level of caution last seen either just after the late-2018 20% market tumble or back to the previous economic scares of 2015-16 and 2011 when stocks had shed more than 15%.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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