Andy Larsen: How do caucus goers differ statistically from primary voters in Utah? Investigating the data.

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Andy Larsen: How do caucus goers differ statistically from primary voters in Utah? Investigating the data.
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The Utah GOP will skip a primary in 2024, instead sending its members to a caucus for choosing presidential and congressional candidates. What are the consequences of that decision?

announced its decision to not hold a primary next year. Instead, it’s a return to old-school, in-person caucuses to decide its candidate for president of the United States of America.. His story included quotes from Gov. Spencer Cox about how the last time the GOP ran a caucus in 2016, those delegates selected “did not represent the Republican Party at all.”

So in addition, we need to look at the voting body’s characteristics change in caucuses than primaries. But exit polls aren’t super common for primaries, and are quite uncommon for caucuses. So without that, we have limited information about who voted and why.column. Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science from Northeastern University,called “Are Caucuses Bad For Democracy?” in 2010. In order to study the turnout, and in lieu of exit polling data, he used data from the Cooperative Election Study , a well-regarded poll that interviews over 50,000 Americans every election cycle.

So, for example, 49.9% of responding Utahns were male, but of those who participated in primaries, nearly 56% were male. And in caucuses, just over 60% of participants were men. The same is true of race — caucus goers tended to be a little more white than the rest. I also thought the health insurance aspect was interesting. Nearly everyone who attends on caucus night has health insurance, at much higher rates than the rest of the population. I can’t blame anyone who chooses not to attend a crowded caucus event in which disease is more likely to spread if they don’t have the insurance to deal with that potential sickness. This also may result in candidates who care less about universal health insurance than the population does overall.

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