Analysis: The weird divergence between views of Biden and support for his party
for every president back to Harry S. Truman. Only Truman himself had a lower net approval rating at this point in his presidency than does Biden — but in an era when there were far fewer polls conducted .Biden’s net approval sits at minus-16 . The previous record-holder for lowest net approval 541 days into the presidency was a gentleman named Donald Trump. His net approval at this point was minus-11.
We’re not dealing with a big sample size here, admittedly, but using data from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics , we see there is a weaker correlation between the generic ballot margin and net presidential approval now than for any other election since at least 2014. In 2018, there wasn’t a lot of movement during the last 200 days. Trump was unpopular, and Democrats were expected to do well. They did.
That brings us back to Biden this year. The pattern so far has been striking: Biden’s net approval keeps sinking lower, but the generic ballot margin has hardly budged. In fact, it’s even moved slightly back toward the Democrats, perhaps thanks in part to the Supreme Court decision overturningThis is, again, probably due to voters seeing Biden separately from the rest of the party.
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