Analysis: The NBA hates the midrange jumper. The Celtics will need to embrace it to beat the Bucks.
Kyrie Irving of the Boston Celtics made 50 percent of his midrange shots during the 2018-19 regular season. By Mohammad Dakhil April 26 at 9:08 AM For the past decade or so NBA analytics has told us that the midrange shot is the most inefficient shot in basketball. However, the Boston Celtics will have to break from that conventional wisdom to find success against the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round of the playoffs.
As more teams in the NBA have shifted their offensive focus to prioritize either three-point attempts or layups, defenses are reacting by resorting to this coverage. This is where the midrange shot comes in because the Bucks are willing to give this up. in the open court. For example, when they split their last two games of the year against the Philadelphia, the 76ers produced 34 points from midrange combined in those contests.
Irving will get a lot of looks like the ones below when he comes off a pick-and-roll in the half-court setting. On that play, Giannis Antetokounmpo is dropping into the restricted area with Bledsoe pursing on the backside. This is too much space for Irving, who drops in a floater. Then again in transition coming off a re-screen, Lopez is in drop coverage with Malcolm Brogdon in pursuit on the backside, which opens the door for another Irving floater.
As Irving comes off a Horford screen, Lopez is backpedaling to protect the rim and Bledsoe chasing from behind leaving Horford the opportunity to pop to the elbow where Irving hits him with a well-placed pocket pass. The distance is too much for Lopez to cover, especially with his momentum going the opposite direction and it is an easy jumper for Horford.
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