Jerome Powell may still be the clear favorite to get renominated as Federal Reserve Chairman, but some investors are considering the long-shot alternative should there be a surprise change.
Powell's odds in betting markets have fallen following sharp criticism of his performance by progressive Democrats and a trading scandal among Federal Reserve officials. L1N2R020JPowell a 76% chance of being confirmed by the U.S. Senate, down from a 90% chance on September 12 although up from a 61% chance in late September, while the odds that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will be nominated have increased to 18% from a low of 6% in September.
The White House has not chosen any fixed timetable for President Joe Biden to make a decision on Fed personnel but has said Biden "will engage with his senior economic team in a careful and thoughtful process...in a timely manner." Biden has not made a decision but some of his aides are supportive of Powell, according to people familiar with the matter.
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a research note that if "history is any guide, we should know the outcome in the next few weeks," noting that prior announcements have come in October and November. While the Federal Reserve likely will have begun tapering its emergency-level support of the bond market by that time, a change would also increase the risk that markets misinterpret the Fed's policy outlook in the year ahead, said Jason England, global bonds portfolio manager at Janus Henderson.