Investors have piled back into bonds in Pakistan and Argentina following cash infusions and optimism over multilateral support, but the two nations have secured only enough help to limp to autumn elections, experts said.
This fresh cash means Pakistan is unlikely to default on its debt in the next six to nine months, said de Sousa. Elections in theReserves remain precariously low at $9.8 billion as of 7 July, only roughly two months of imports. JPMorgan pegs its external financing needs at greater than $30 billion.
The real challenge for Pakistan, which is still recovering financially and physically from last year's, comes after the contentious elections, when it will likely need to secure a longer-term IMF program. Reflecting the challenges ahead, the Pakistan bond rally was heavily skewed towards shorter-dated maturities.In Argentina, infamous for its chaotic cycles of debt and default, problems are even more deeply rooted. South America's second-largest economy is teetering on the edge of recession, with inflation topping 100% and a currency that keeps depreciating in official and parallel markets.44 billionBattling an acute dollar scarcity, in June it paid part of $2.
Investors and pollsters said the tough times could force Pakistan and Argentina's leaders to reckon with needed fiscal reforms."The Peronist government faces a high chance of losing the election," said Alejandro Catterberg, director of Buenos Aires-based polling firm Poliarquia. "The disappointment and frustration among Argentines are running at the highest level in the last two decades".
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