Analysis: How to read polls like an expert — or, at least, not like a newbie
. Remember that a poll is a sample of a larger population. Every pollster reports a number called the “margin of error” that tells you how wrong their poll could be based on the chance they talked to an unrepresentative sample of that larger group.
But one thing I write about in my book is that a single election poll is subject to much more error than just this “sampling error” alone. For example, there is the chance that members of one party are less likely to take their polls than another , and there is error in predicting who is actually likely to turn out to vote. So historically, the distribution of errors in election polls is about twice as large as the margin of error implies..
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