Some economists expected annualised real growth for the quarter of 2.5%. Instead they were treated to a figure of 3.2%
THIS YEAR America’s economy did not get the freshest of starts. A government shutdown, a wobbly stockmarket and concerns that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy too quickly made for a dim outlook for 2019. With the effects of fiscal stimulus fading, and momentum in the global economy ebbing, most expected America’s economic growth to decelerate.
Dig a little deeper, though, and the details are less rosy. Around one percentage point of that 3.2% was because of falling imports and rising exports, a volatile component of GDP. Another 0.7 percentage points came from changes in inventories, which could unwind later in the year. Some of this weakness should reverse in the second quarter of 2019. The government shutdown probably did crimp performance, but is now over. And though retail sales went through a soft patch around the turn of the year, they seem to be picking up. And the GDP figures come with a standard caveat: they are preliminary estimates, which will be revised at least twice in the coming months.
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