It’s a light week in terms of economic data, with the most important releases being the business surveys from the major economies. But the true highli
ght will be the Fed’s annual economic symposium. With US yields on the verge of a breakout, Chairman Powell’s signals about the path of interest rates will be absolutely crucial for the dollar.Once per year, FOMC officials gather at their summer retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for a symposium to exchange views on monetary policy and economic trends. Although this is mostly an academic event, it has been used by Fed leaders over the years to signal major strategy shifts.
Adding fuel to such concerns is the recent streak of economic data. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker currently estimates growth for this quarter at an annualized 5.8%, thanks to a resilient consumer and a booming housing market. With home prices hitting new record highs in much of the country, the cooldown in rents that the Fed has long anticipated might prove elusive.
That’s essentially what he said at the Fed’s July meeting three weeks ago. However, considering that the data flow has been stronger than expected since then, the risk is that he strikes a slightly more hawkish tone this time, putting greater emphasis on the prospect of keeping rates elevated for a longer period or another rate hike.
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