Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Tran finds algorithmic traders [CTAs – commodity trading advisor funds] piling into oil markets,
“Why are prices 18 per cent higher than six weeks ago? CTAs turned from negative to neutral to bullish over a short span over recent weeks. And while fundamentally driven investors have been looking to deploy to the bull side, anecdotally, many appeared late on catching the move or were not right sized to capitalize on the gains, thus leading to a chase that further fuels the upward momentum.
“In a sign of rising sensitivity to even modest changes in credit quality, investors are demanding an unusually high degree of spread compensation to move out of credits with at least one double-A rating into bonds with only single-A ratings.
“So far, regional banks, commercial real estate and US sovereign debt have frayed but cracks will likely emerge elsewhere.
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