Alberta’s Oil Sands Product Isn’t Getting Cheaper To Ship
Canada’s pipeline to nowhere keeps getting worse and worse for Canadians. And it’s not like anyone in Alberta is thanking the federal Liberals for buying it and tripling it for them.For the past few years, when I’ve talked to energy analysts globally, we’ve tended to agree that Alberta’s product will be first off the market as peak oil demand occurs. As a reminder, Equinor, McKinsey, and the IEA all have credible scenarios showing that it will occur.
Why is it expensive to deliver? Well, that’s because Alberta has a limited set of pipelines to the only foreign market for the product, the heavy oil refineries near Houston, Texas. The Keystone Pipeline is it, and its expansion through watersheds that would have been devastated if the diluted bitumen that it was to carry had spilled, as pipelines are wont to do, was sensibly cancelled.
Enter the Trans Mountain Pipeline. That’s the one that was proposed to be tripled in capacity over a decade ago. There were about six major barriers to its approval, not least from my perspective is that it was going to be a stranded asset. Certainly the firm which owned it, Kinder Morgan, wasn’t interested in spending the money. The idea was that this pipeline was going to cut into that US$7 per barrel transportation discount.The Trans Mountain runs west to the Pacific.
Then Kinder Morgan made it clear that it didn’t see the business case, and the Liberals bought the pipeline outright and started construction under the Crown corporation they’d put around it. The carbon price deal was good, but the pipeline purchase sucked. The idea was that the government would build the pipeline expansion and then sell it to someone who wanted to operate it.
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