After Wagner’s abortive rebellion, the winds of change could blow violently in Russia and Eastern Europe

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After Wagner’s abortive rebellion, the winds of change could blow violently in Russia and Eastern Europe
France Dernières Nouvelles,France Actualités
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The fates of Milosevic and Gaddafi will have taught Putin it’s possible to govern without support of the people, as long as you retain loyalty of security services

, only the country’s defence establishment, the fact that his column of mercenaries was able to get within 300 kilometres of Moscow – with the Russian capital looking ill-prepared to resist before Mr. Prigozhin suddenly backed down – has caused others to wonder if the next gust could sweep away Mr. Putin’s suddenly brittle-looking regime.

After that period of chaos, Soviet-style authoritarianism returned to Russia at the turn of the century in the form of Mr. Putin. The former KGB agent’s moves over two decades to turn back the clock have now cast a dark shadow over neighbouring Belarus, which has not yet seen its democratic revolution, and Ukraine, where the quest for freedom is now a fight to the death against revanchist Russian invaders.

Mr. Putin, who is known to be haunted by the last hours of former Kremlin allies such as Slobodan Milosevic and Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, spent the days after the mutinyand the watching world that he remains the popular head of a functioning regime. He repeatedly praised his security forces for their loyalty and bravery, which they did not exhibit during the uprising, and tried to give the impression that he was in control of events all along.

The fates of Mr. Milosevic and Col. Gaddafi will have taught Mr. Putin that it’s possible to govern without the support of the people – as long as you retain the loyalty of the security services. Once that’s gone, however, it’s only a matter of time before the people realize the emperor has no sword.

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