Africa will continue to suffer coups and civil wars in 2022

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Africa will continue to suffer coups and civil wars in 2022
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Ethiopia is not the only African trouble-spot that the world will be watching next year

a young aid worker cut his teeth trying to negotiate between warring parties in Ethiopia to allow food trucks to cross the front lines in a bid to ease the suffering in the world’s first televised famine. The disaster was largely caused by the government, a Marxist dictatorship that forced peasants onto collective farms, where they starved, and halted food supplies to areas under rebel control. It killed 400,00-700,000 people.

More than 35 years later that aid worker is a veteran Western diplomat who is again trying to negotiate with Ethiopia’s government to allow food to cross the front lines of a civil war to avert a new famine, affecting more than 1m people. “It has bookended my career,” he says, with evident pain in his voice. Ethiopia’s rapid descent, from one of Africa’s fastest-developing countries to one torn by civil war, will dominate the West’s interactions with the region.

Ethiopia is not the only African trouble-spot that the world will be watching in 2022. All but four of the 15 most vulnerable countries on the Fragile States Index compiled by the Fund for Peace, an American think-tank, are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Just as worrying is the slow collapse of states in the Sahel, a band of scrubby desert that runs south of the Sahara, and the spread of jihadists from Mali into neighbouring countries such as Niger and Burkina Faso. Despite successes by French forces in killing jihadist leaders, France would like to start reducing the number of troops it has in the region. But after two coups in Mali, and others in nearby Chad and Guinea, the outlook in the Sahel remains grim.

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