The most severe global warming scenarios now appear less likely, but effects from even lesser extremes are proving to be unexpectedly potent, scientists say.
If energy transformations continue and technologies such as carbon sequestration become viable, climate models suggest global warming could eventually reverse,. At the same time, many nations are failing to take the actions they’ve pledged to make that happen.
Some scientists have argued the most extreme projections of warming have long failed to account for clean-energy advances, in particular declines in coal use. Zeke Hausfather,“If we succeed really well, we can limit warming to below 2 degrees. If we do poorly, we can end up closer to 3 degrees,” said Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe and co-author of a key IPCC
report. “We don’t think we’re heading toward a 4-degree world, but we can’t rule it out if we get unlucky.”If moderating projections of global warming are good news, the bad news is what is already unfolding: Average global temperatures have risen more than 1.1 degrees Celsius, or 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit, since the dawn of industry and combustion engines.Take, for example, a heat wave that descended on the Pacific Northwest in June 2021.
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