April will almost certainly go down as the worst month ever for American workers.
The jobs report, out Friday, will likely reveal the highest U.S. unemployment rate on record at 15% to 20%, but even that figure will probably understate the scale of joblessness across the nation.
As a result, the extent of the longer-term damage that the April jobs report highlights will likely be unclear for months. The headline numbers forecast for Friday’s report will be ugly. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict 21.5 million job losses and an unemployment rate of 16% -- up from 4.4% in March -- both the highest on record by far, according to their median estimate. Keep in mind that February’s 3.5% jobless rate matched a half-century low.
Lydia Boussour, senior U.S. economist for Oxford Economics, expects the report to show even more job losses -- 28 million. She cites an Economic Policy Institute analysis noting that as many as 14 million Americans couldn’t file jobless claims because of swamped phone and computer systems. Goldman Sachs expects a broader measure of unemployment -- that includes discouraged workers who aren't looking for jobs and part-time workers who want full-time positions, as well as the unemployed -- to leap to a record 29%.Of the 1.7 million people who left the workforce in March, 1.2 million didn’t want a job, the Moody’s data show. With much of the economy shuttered, there likely were few jobs available, Koropeckyj says.
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