Will Game Pass live up to its promise in 2023?
In short, we stan Game Pass. Yet I am also concerned about how long the good times will roll. In October, it was reported that Game Pass had failed to hit its subscriber target for the second-year running. It wasn't a narrow miss either. Microsoft's predicted year-on-year growth rate for the service was 72.88% by June 2022. As of that date, the service had grown by just 28.07%. Worse, year-on-year growth has actually slowed compared to 2021, which saw revenue increase by 37.48%.
As for why that is happening, there are plenty of potential causes, but ultimately, I think it boils down to a lack of star power. Game Pass has tons of interesting, fun games, but one thing it doesn't have is a God of War or an Elden Ring, that life-consuming blockbuster thatwants to play. The games industry disproportionately revolves around a handful of major blockbuster titles, and while Game Pass has had a few contenders, none of them have quite hit the mark.
After Starfield, the biggest game on Microsoft's docket is Diablo 4. Hell, maybe it's the bigger prospect of the two. Either way, it depends entirely on whether Microsoft's acquisition of Blizzard goes through, which given the FTC is seeking to, is uncertain to say the least. Even if the FTC suit fails, it could still scupper Microsoft's plans by delaying the acquisition, or forcing Microsoft to make concessions about what games it will make exclusive.
I'm excited to play all these games. But from Microsoft's point of view, Game Pass' prospects for 2023 seem heavily reliant on Starfield drawing a big crowd. If it doesn't, well, I imagine Phil Spencer will be asking himself some hard questions. I don't think Game Pass will disappear—the service is profitable according to Microsoft, even if it isn't doing the numbers the publisher would like.
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